Cellphone owners rather than subscriptions key mobile access policy indicator

Mobile subscription data becoming less useful for gauging mobile penetration
73% of world population owned a cellphone in 2011

Given that mobile communications is widely acknowledged as being the main Information and Communication Technology tool in developing nations, reliable figures on the level of penetration is important. However multi-SIM card ownership, lapsed subscriptions that are still counted for a time and the growing number of machines connected to mobile networks is increasingly blurring the relevance of mobile subscription based penetration figures (See: http://www.ictdata.org/2010/07/more-mobiles-than-people.html).

By the end of 2011, there were 93 countries with more mobile phone subscriptions than people.

Wireless Intelligence, a consultancy specializing in mobile numbers, recently acknowledged the mismatch between theory and reality:

“The assumption that the number of connections reflects the number of individuals subscribed to a network is increasingly a misleading one.” https://wirelessintelligence.com/analysis/2012/10/global-mobile-penetration-subscribers-versus-connections/354/

Wireless Intelligence uses several assumptions to arrive at a figure for their estimate of unique mobile subscriptions for 2012: 3.2 billion (or only 45% mobile user penetration compared to a 95% mobile subscription penetration). Their research is based on 39 countries, representing about 75% of global mobile connections.

There is a more accurate way to gauge mobile phone penetration: using surveys asking individuals if they own a mobile phone. A World Bank project carried out a survey in 2011 of households in rural areas of three Chinese provinces. Some 85% of respondents reported having a mobile phone. Of those that did not, almost a third stated that the reason was because they did not need one. Just over one in five reported that they could use another person's cellphone.

Results of 2011 household survey in rural areas of three Chinese provinces, World Bank 

Recent cellphone ownership surveys have been carried out in almost 100 countries. Based on this data—representing some 90% of the world's population and mobile subscriptions—73 percent of the world's population (or 4.3 billion people) owned a mobile phone in 2011.

There are only 12 countries where 95% or more of the surveyed population owns a mobile phone.

Mobile phone ownership is ubiquitous in only around a dozen countries where 95% or more of the survey population claims to have a cellphone. These are mainly Middle Eastern and Nordic nations. Cellphone ownership was less than half the population in 16 countries where survey data is available.  The three economies where mobile subscriptions most outnumber actual cellphone ownership are Hong Kong, Botswana and Russia. The three where cellphone penetration is most understated based on subscription data are Haiti, Iraq and China. While cellular networks have had a huge impact on access to communications, there is still some distance to go to reach ubiquity.

Cellphone ownership, % of surveyed population, 2011

	Mobile	% population
	subscriptions	owning
	per 100 people	cell phone
Bahrain	150	99		15+
Qatar	130	99	*	15+
Albania	96	99		15+
Hong Kong	208	98	*	16-60
Iraq	78	98		15+
Haiti	42	98		15+
Finland	166	96	*	15+
Sweden	120	96		16-60
Spain	115	96		18+
Israel	121	95		18+
Jordan	120	95		18+
Latvia	103	95	*	15+
Italy	152	94	*	15+
Luxembourg	149	94	*	15+
Denmark	127	94	*	15+
Czech Republic	122	94	*	15+
Armenia	96	94		15+
Estonia	140	93	*	15+
Netherlands	119	93	*	15+
China	73	93		18+
Cyprus	134	92	*	15+
Austria	155	91	*	15+
Lithuania	153	91		18+
Macedonia	110	91		15+
Slovenia	107	91	*	15+
Ireland	107	91	*	15+
Uzbekistan	89	90		15+
United Kingdom	130	89		18+
Belgium	114	89	*	15+
Australia	109	89		18+
Germany	133	88		18+
Greece	108	88	*	15+
Iran	74	88		15+
Kazakhstan	140	87		15+
Morocco	114	87		12-65
Korea, Rep.	107	87	*	3+
Russia	180	86		18+
Croatia	116	86		15+
Japan	102	86		18+
Vietnam	143	85		15+
United States	106	85		18+
France	105	85		18+
Bosnia and Herzegovina	82	85		15+
Ukraine	122	84		18+
Portugal	115	84	*	15+
Azerbaijan	111	84		15+
Turkey	91	84		18+
Kyrgyz Republic	102	83		15+
South Africa	127	82		18+
Georgia	99	81		15+
Philippines	91	81		16-60
Turkmenistan	64	80	*	15+
Lebanon	85	79		18+
Poland	129	78		18+
Brazil	124	76		10+
Bulgaria	140	74	*	15+
Canada	75	74		18+
Kenya	66	74		18+
Egypt	105	71		18+
Moldova	104	71	*	15+
Nigeria	59	71	*	15+
Zimbabwe	73	70		15+
Thailand	122	69	*	15+
Afghanistan	56	64		15+
Botswana	157	62	*	15+
Ghana	87	59	*	15+
Mexico	86	57		18+
Indonesia	98	55		18+
Rwanda	44	54	*	15+
India	74	53		18+
Uganda	47	52	*	15+
Bangladesh	51	49		15+
Pakistan	62	48		18+
Ecuador	102	47		16+
Senegal	70	46	*	15+
Cameroon	50	43	*	15+
Sierra Leone	36	37	*	15+
Tanzania	61	35	*	15+
Cambodia	69	33	*	15+
Chad	35	32	*	15+
Burundi	15	32	*	15+
Liberia	45	22	*	15+
Mali	78	21	*	15+
Burkina Faso	51	19	*	15+
Niger	29	18	*	15+
Central African Republic	24	16	*	15+
Myanmar	2	6		15+
AVERAGE	87	73

Note: * = 2010.
Source: ictDATA.org adapted from Pew, Eurobarometer, BBG, Gallup and national government statistics.

Recommended citation:
ictDATA.org. 2013. "Cellphone owners rather than subscriptions key mobile access policy indicator." http://www.ictdata.org/2013/01/cellphone-owners-rather-than.html